Sunday, February 27, 2022

An Analysis on Ukraine/Russia


1) Why is Russia Doing this?

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has very little to do with Ukraine's ties to NATO (it wasn't allowed in despite years of trying) nor due to Western "provocation" (well refuted here), rather as Putin himself has said numerous times, a desire to recreate the Soviet Union, this time as a Russian nationalist project as opposed to an atheistic, ideologically communist one. To that end, Putin is playing up his role as a savior of all Slavs both in and around the region.
To understand why Russia wants to restore Soviet era borders please watch this excellent video on this topic:

As the video clearly states, Ukraine (along with Moldova and Belarus) becomes part of a security zone for Russian central plains (where 80% of Russians actually live). Carpathian mountains, Crimea and Kalingrad are choke points.

2. What is likely outcome from all this?

This action in Ukraine, will likely be followed by stepped up action against Muslims in Bosnia and Kosovo (with Russian support for fellow Slavs in Serbia, especially against Kosovo), further bombings of Muslims in Syria, as well as further aggression against Muslim republics -- Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kazakhistan, Krgyzistan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Dagestan, and Chechnya. Putin has been allowed to reassert his influence in these areas as the US/West have outsourced these to him, by deliberately saying little and doing nothing.
In each case, a pretext was manufactured (apartment bombings in Moscow for Chechnya, overthrow of former Russian backed dictators in Central Asia, most recently in Kazakhistan, or [in case of Syria, Assad-backed ISIS],) to justify Russian intervention. This intervention then creates "new facts" or "political realities" on the ground which everyone is told to accept.
If the world was ever really serious about stopping Russian aggression they would have *first* stopped Russian acts by stopping:
* Russian invasion of Chechnya in the late 1990s
* Russian bombings in Syria starting in 2015
* Use of Russian Wagner Group mercenaries in Libya and Central Africa starting in 2016.
The fact that nothing is done aside from rhetoric, openly signals to Putin/Russia to keep going.

3. Hypocrisy of media along with *both* Left and Right

In addition to the above, there is the overwhelming media racism, much of it said quite openly, some examples include:


“It’s very emotional for me because I see European people with blue eyes and blonde hair being killed”
- Ukraine’s Deputy Chief Prosecutor, David Sakvarelidze


"This isn't Iraq or Afghanistan...This is a relatively civilized, relatively European city"
- CBS foreign correspondent Charlie D’Agata.

"civilized" vs "those people"

There is a great thread that catalogs all of this here along with a great written piece here.

The US and Western far left and far right aren't much better. Fact that many are openly cheering for Putin should come as no surprise to anyone. The *same* people cheering the murders of Muslims in Syria and Libya at the hands of "anti-imperialist" installed dictators, are now falling over themselves to praise Putin speaks for itself.

This tweet perfectly captures the Russian social media disinformation strategy

Among Muslims, secular leftists such as Palestinian Ali AbuNimah of Electronic Intifada praising Putin here along with American wing of Al-Jazeera (AJPlus) should put the nail in the coffin of supporting these bankrupt individuals, organizations, and personalities.

4. Hope for the Future

Lastly, just as the Soviet Union fell after the sacrifice of millions of Muslims in Afghanistan, it will take the sacrifice of Muslims again to save the world from Russian aggression. Putin understands this threat, especially given political vacuum in Afghanistan after US departure and his meeting with Imran Khan of Pakistan is to try to use Pakistan to contain any threat of further Muslim activity in Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, or Krgyzistan (especially by the Taliban).
When (not if) Muslims politically come together again, it will be Muslims who will finish off the Russian nationalist project just as they did the atheist Soviet one.

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